Fields under Fire: Dry Weather Ignites Crop Activity Surge in the U.S. – Agriculture Weather Watch

For the second week in a row, near-or above-normal temperatures prevailed across the country, with scattered showers in the West typically causing only minor fieldwork delays.

Across the upper Midwest and the northern half of the Plains, temperatures generally averaged at least 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. A far wider region, encompassing the Great Basin, Intermountain West, northern and central Plains, the Midwest, and parts of the southeast, saw readings that averaged more than 5 F.

UNITED STATES

The summer crops were harvested, and the winter wheat was planted almost entirely thanks to the dry weather.

Soybean harvest is finished, and corn harvest for the week ending November 19 was 93%, higher than the average of 91% over the previous five years.

Over the next few days, the Atlantic states should expect between one and three inches of rain, and a low-pressure system that is currently sweeping the Midwest will gradually weaken and move eastward.

Over the weekend, the Northern and Central Rockies are predicted to see heavy snowfall, with most regions probably seeing ideal temperatures and little to no precipitation.

The NWS predicts near- or below-normal temperatures and precipitation across much of the country through November 30. The Mississippi Valley will see some precipitation over the next five days.

On November 22, the Mississippi River gauged 1.83 feet at Vicksburg and minus 9.17 feet at Memphis, both of which were among the lowest readings for the month.

According to S&P Global Commodity Insights data, Platts assessed CIF New Orleans Corn at $208.55/mt on November 22, up $2.25/mt on the day.

BRAZIL

The Port of Manaus reports that the water level in the Rio Negro River basin is still within a concerning range, although it increased to 13.20 meters on November 21 from the lowest-ever recorded level of 12.70 meters on October 27.

Over the course of the next week, rain is predicted in the Amazonas, Acre, Rondonia, and South Roraima, with accumulations of more than 80 mm.

Dry weather is predicted for the weekend and most of the following week in many parts of the northeast and north.

Localized rain showers over 50 mm in the central provinces will increase soil moisture and facilitate the sowing and growth of first-corn crops.

As of November 21, the water level in the Rio Negro River basin was 13.20 meters, up from the lowest recorded level of 12.70 meters on October 27, but it was still within a concerning range, according to the Port of Manaus.

The Amazonas, Acre, Rondonia, and South Roraima are predicted to experience rainfall accumulations exceeding 80 mm during the upcoming week.

Dry weather is predicted for the weekend and likely into the next week in most of the northeast and parts of the north.

Localized downpours of more than 50 mm in the central provinces will increase soil moisture and facilitate the planting and growth of first-corn crops.

It is predicted that Sao Paulo will experience isolated downpours of more than 50 mm, along with thunderstorms, lightning, and wind gusts.

Over the next week, there will be less rain in the southern regions of Brazil, which will improve the environment for summer crop sowing, growth, and management.

Brazil Corn FOB Santos was valued by Platts, a division of S&P Global, at $230.6/mt on November 22, an increase of 69 cents/mt from the previous assessment.

ARGENTINA

While corn and soybeans are emerging farther south thanks to sunny and cool weather, cotton and other summer crops received plenty of moisture from the heavy rains that blanketed northern Argentina.

Short-term rains are expected in the core region, while frontal systems will significantly cool the area to the south of the Pampas.

Frontal systems are predicted to produce unfavorable conditions for the corn, soybean, and wheat crops but are less likely to reach frost levels.

The GEA region is predicted to see fresh precipitation in the north this coming week, possibly extending to the southwest.

It is anticipated that the core region’s temperatures will rise, peaking between 28 and 30 degrees Celsius. It could get as high as 32 °C in Cordoba.

The GEA zone’s center and east continue to see improvements in soil moisture, but the west and northwest continue to see poor and dry conditions. The ideal stage of rainfall requires accumulations of between 100 and 180 millimeters of rain.

According to S&P Global data, Platts valued Argentina Corn FOB Up River at $213.68/mt on November 22, a decrease of 49 cents over the previous day.

AUSTRALIA

The majority of Australia, with the exception of coastal regions in New South Wales and Victoria, is expected to experience dry weather for the next two weeks, according to a forecast released by the Bureau of Meteorology on November 21.

The bureau stated that dry weather is predicted for Western Australia over the next two weeks.

Drier weather is predicted to hasten the wheat harvest, with Western Australia and New South Wales serving as major wheat suppliers.

The bureau predicts that temperatures will rise in Western Australia and drop in some areas of New South Wales.

Over the next two weeks, temperatures in Western Australia could be 3 to 4 degrees Celsius above average. Over the next two weeks, New South Wales could see a 2 to 4 degree drop in temperature.

The wheat harvest for the marketing year 2023–2024 (October–September) was predicted by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics to be around 26.2 million mt, down 34% from the previous year. This is anticipated to have a negative impact on exports.

On November 22, Platts, a division of S&P Global, maintained its assessment of FOB Australian Premium White wheat at $286/mt.

EUROPE

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather forecast on November 22 indicated that dry weather is expected to be experienced in most of Europe over the next two weeks.

It stated that in the next two weeks, scattered snowfall is expected over most of France and Germany.

The agency also predicts that temperatures in Europe will be close to normal for the next two weeks.

Spoken snowfall could cause frosts and have an impact on the wheat crop now being grown in Germany and France, two important suppliers.

In contrast to the previous estimate of 274.1 million mt, the European Commission predicted in its August update that the EU would produce 269.8 million mt of cereal in the marketing year 2023–24 (July–June).

S&P Global data indicated that on November 22, Platts evaluated EU wheat with an 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $244.75/mt, a $1/mt decrease from the previous day.