49ers news: One metric that debunks a alse narrative about Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy is second in the league in passing yards. He trails Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott by nine yards despite having 27 fewer passing attempts. Purdy is also second in yards per attempt, first in completion percentage over expectation — which would be higher as it’s a stat that doesn’t account for drops — and fourth in EPA per dropback.

A couple of things to consider about Purdy’s start to the season make it impressive. For one, he’s been without the reigning Offensive Player of the Year and two All-Pros. But he’s also been under considerable pressure — the eighth highest rate in the NFL — more than most of the quarterbacks in the upper echelon of statistical categories.

Below is a chart highlighting the percentage of throws a quarterback makes to his first read, along with the EPA that a quarterback generates when throwing to his first read. In most graphs/charts, you want to be where Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is. That’s where Purdy sits:

Based on what we’ve seen from him this season, being as far away from Trevor Lawrence is a good sign.

When I think about a quarterback who is only comfortable going to his first read, it tells me he’s uncomfortable with his offense. It suggests that the coaching staff doesn’t have enough confidence in him, the offense lacks creativity, and he can’t get from one read to another. There are several factors.

Then, there’s Purdy. If you’re running with the initial narrative about him, then he’s only throwing to his first read and isn’t the driving force of the 49ers offense. But if you’re watching, you can see Brock manipulating defenders nearly every drop back and being in complete control.

If the Niners have an explosive play, it’s likely due to Purdy either using his legs to extend the play or his eyes to move a defender out of a throwing window. To me, the tweet above suggests that Purdy fully understands what routes are being run. And when he does go to his first read, as you can see, the result is overwhelmingly positive.