49ers-Jets predictions: Can the Niners blow out Aaron Rodgers and New York?

The San Francisco 49ers (0-0) open the season at Levi’s Stadium for the first time since 2020 with a Monday night battle against the New York Jets (0-0).

The reigning NFC champions will be at full strength with the ink on the Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams extensions drying and ready for Monday night. The Jets open on a Monday night for the second year in a row with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, looking for a different outcome than last year. The 49ers’ pass rush added Leonard Floyd across from Nick Bosa in hopes of improving a pass rush with a down 2023.

The 49ers beat the Jets, 31-13, when these two teams last met in 2020, with a series of unfortunate events happening on the Metlife turf that we don’t need to revisit. Plenty has changed between the two franchises, featuring different starting quarterbacks and former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh as the Jets head coach.

A universe exists where Monday night is a Super Bowl preview. That universe could be the Milky Way.

49ers vs. Jets odds, moneyline, over/under

According to FanDuel, the 49ers are favorites to beat the Jets.

• Spread: 49ers (-4.5)
• Moneyline: 49ers (-215); Jets (+180)
• Over/under: 43.5

Andrew’s Prediction: 49ers 24, Jets 10

I am a big believer in the 2024 version of the 49ers defense. The secondary is as deep as it’s ever been under Kyle Shanahan, with the pass rush featuring a three-head monster with Bosa, Floyd, and Javon Hargrave. While Rodgers has succeeded against the Shanahan-led 49ers (11 touchdowns to 2 interceptions in six games since 2018, including the postseason), he hasn’t faced the 49ers since 2021, before the consecutive 20-interception seasons. It’s not an enviable position that Rodgers is in, entering his age-41 season after his injury and instantly facing this 49ers defense. The offense starts rusty but gets it going with the defense, giving the Jets offense fits.

Kyle’s prediction: 49ers 24, Jets 20

These two teams are projected to be the most successful in the NFL. I don’t disagree with Andrew’s assessment of the 49ers’ defense, but I believe it’ll take some time for Nick Sorensen to figure out his personnel and determine which packages work.

His opponent features a quarterback who has generated the second-most passing EPA from 2018-2022, only behind some guy named Patrick Mahomes. Tonight would have been an ideal matchup for newcomer Yetur Gross-Matos. Now, Sorensen may have to lean on his starters earlier in the season than anticipated. That’s not a bad thing.

Last season with the Houston Texans, Maliek Collins (12.4 percent) generated a higher pressure rate than Arik Armstead (11.2 percent). Javon Hargrave (13.7 percent) was sixth among all defensive tackles, while Nick Bosa generated the third-most pressures in the NFL last year. Bosa will go against Morgan Moses, who was 28th out of 34th in pressure rate allowed at right tackle in 2023. It’s a matchup he must dominate.

If the pass rush has the leg up, the secondary is improved, and Fred Warner continues to lead a defense that allowed the second-fewest yards after the catch in 2023, the difference in this game will be who can stop the run in the red zone.

It’s an area where San Francisco struggled mightily in 2023, as they were the fourth-worst red zone defense against the run in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers isn’t a mobile threat, but Breece Hall’s speed presents more than enough problems.

I think we’ll see a pair of early scores before the home team starts to pull away and holds on for dear life, much like Thursday night’s game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The 49ers played in so few close games last year that Week 1 will feel different for everybody involved. The Niners’ ground game will be the difference in closing this game out.

Jason’s prediction: 49ers 21, Jets 14