Chicago Weather Update: This year’s winter forecast and weather accidents

Chicago skyline at sunrise | Daniel Schwen

Chicago’s sunrise time Monday is 6:30 a.m., with a sunset time of 4:40 p.m.

According to the NBC 5 Storm Team, the first full week of November in the Chicago region will be moderate but windy, with temperatures above average—up to 70 degrees in some places—gusty gusts, and a few early-morning rains.

Alicia Roman, a meteorologist for NBC 5, says that while most of the day is predicted to be dry, counties to the north may get a brief rain or two as the morning goes on.

“Outside of a few morning showers along our northern counties,” Roman stated, “Today will be dry with skies turning partly sunny this afternoon.”

Monday’s highs will be in the mid-60s to low-70s, Roman said, which is warmer than usual. Most places had temperatures in the 50s around 5:15 a.m., Roman continued.

“Highs today are feeling nice for the start of November,” Roman stated.

Roman stated that Monday will be windy even though it will be warmer than usual. The winds had already reached 20 to 25 miles per hour early on Monday.

According to Roman, the winds are predicted to kick up even more by 9 a.m., with gusts reaching 43 mph.

Winds are predicted to lessen on Monday afternoon, with gusts of around 25 mph at 3 p.m. time.

According to the National Weather Service, “seasonably warm” conditions are expected to remain in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, with a chance for showers late Tuesday into Wednesday morning and afternoon.

Winds are predicted to lessen on Monday afternoon, with gusts of around 25 mph at 3 p.m. time.

Chicago traffic crashes due to weather

Every traffic collision that occurs on a city roadway inside the boundaries of the City of Chicago and is under the control of the Chicago Police Department (CPD) is detailed in accident data. The information displayed is straight from the CPD’s electronic crash reporting system (E-Crash), with no personally identifying information included. Documents are added to the data portal upon completion of a crash report or modification of an already completed report in E-Crash. Some police districts’ E-Crash data is accessible from 2015, but citywide statistics are not available until September 2017. The driver(s) involved in the collision self-reports around half of all crash reports, which are primarily minor collisions, to the police district, and the responding police officer records the other half on the spot.

The reporting officer records a number of collision characteristics, such as stated speed limits, weather conditions, and street condition data, based on the best information available at the time. However, many of these may not accord with posted information or other evaluations of the state of the road. The reporting officer has the right to make changes to the accident report at a later date if new or updated information about the collision is obtained. This dataset does not include traffic crashes that occur inside the city boundaries and for which the CPD is not the responding police department. These types of collisions usually occur on local roads that run along the city line, interstate highways, and freeway ramps.

Every collision is reported using the format provided in the Illinois Department of Transportation’s Traffic collision Report (SR1050). The majority of the crash data that is available on the Chicago data portal conforms to the SR1050 data components. You may get the most recent edition of the SR1050 instructions manual, which includes comprehensive details on every data piece, here.

According to Illinois law, only collisions involving at least one moving vehicle, a public roadway, property damage of $1,500 or more, or injuries to any person are deemed reportable crashes. Bike dooring is not included in this list. But regardless of the statute of limitations, CPD records every reported traffic incident occurrence; as a result, not all of the crashes mentioned below may be included in any official Chicago crash dataset made public by the Illinois Department of Transportation.

The data is presented on the Chicago Data Portal.

Chicago winter forecast for 2023

On Friday, December 1, meteorological winter officially begins. A few weeks later, on the solstice, astronomical winter officially begins. The solstice falls at 9:27 p.m. this year. CST on Thursday, December 21, marking the season’s later start since 2019.

Last year, shortly after winter officially began, Chicago saw a funneling of Arctic air that dropped the temperature below zero and held it there for almost twenty-four hours. On December 23, 2023, the city saw its lowest temperature measurement since January 31, 2019, with a low of 8 degrees F below zero. The maximum temperature that day was 1 degree F below zero. Furthermore, on December 23, the AccuWeather RealFeel Temperature was 43 degrees below zero during the day.

“Snow amounts and frequency should again run below historical averages for the Midwest,” stated Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather Long-Rage Forecaster.

This winter, AccuWeather is projecting 20–30 inches of snow in Chicago, which is just somewhat more than the 20.2 inches recorded the previous year. Furthermore, it is predicted that there will be 16 to 22 days of accumulating snow this winter—a lower number than the 24 days of measurable snowfall recorded the previous season.

Pastelok stated, “December should be mild overall across the Midwest,” noting that there will only be a few brief bouts of cold. This may continue into January, when the weather in the region—including Chicago—will be mostly dry and pleasant.

The polar vortex has a window of opportunity in February to plunge southward throughout the central United States, perhaps resulting in temperatures in Chicago falling to their lowest points of the season.

The season is expected to remain moderate overall, even with a dip in temperatures in February. Similar to last season, when temperatures were 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term norms, AccuWeather’s long-range analysts anticipate that temperatures in Chicago this winter will be between 2 and 3 degrees above the historical normal.