November’s Record Heat Makes 2024 the Hottest Year Likely in History

Earth Records Second-Warmest November on Record, 2024 Poised to Be Hottest Year in History

Earth experienced its second-warmest November on record, second only to 2023, indicating that 2024 is likely to conclude as the hottest year ever recorded, according to a new report from the European climate service Copernicus.

Last year marked the hottest year on record, driven by human-induced climate change and the effects of an El Nino event. However, this summer set new records as the hottest in history, with places like Phoenix enduring 113 consecutive days with temperatures reaching at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Climate experts had already anticipated that 2024 would likely break the record for the hottest year ever measured.

November’s global average temperature was 14.10°C (57.38°F), slightly below last year’s average of 14.98°C (59°F). Despite this, climate scientist Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center noted that November temperatures still outpaced previous records by a significant margin, much like 2023 did.

The report also noted that this will likely be the first year in recorded history where the average global temperature was more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above pre-industrial levels. This marks a significant milestone, as the 2015 Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting global warming to 2°C (3.6°F), with a preference for keeping warming below 1.5°C (2.7°F). While the agreement has not yet been violated, experts are emphasizing that decisive climate action is urgently needed.

According to Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess, while the Paris Agreement goals have not yet been breached, the pace of warming underscores a need for “ambitious climate action.” Francis warned that the unprecedented warming is catastrophic for ecosystems and humans alike.

“The pace of warming is so fast that plants and animals cannot adapt as they have during previous climate changes,” Francis explained. “More species are going extinct, agricultural systems will struggle as pollinator populations decline, and coastal communities will face increased risks from sea-level rise.”

Experts attribute part of this year’s heat surge to heat waves over oceans, the decline of reflective sea ice and snow cover, and the high absorption of heat by oceans, which trap about 90% of heat from greenhouse gases. Copernicus reported that Antarctic sea ice extent was 10% below average in November, setting a new record low.

Though last year’s record-breaking heat was linked to the El Nino climate pattern, which has now ended, the cooling pattern that typically follows—La Nina—has yet to emerge. Jonathan Overpeck, a climate scientist at the University of Michigan, expressed some uncertainty about the lack of a cooling effect this year.

“El Nino releases more heat to the atmosphere because of warmer ocean waters, and we’re not seeing the cooling effect that usually helps balance these temperatures in years past,” Overpeck explained. “This may explain why temperatures are remaining so high.”

However, Overpeck added that this year’s significant and accelerating temperature increase remains concerning. “It’s a big jump following another jump, and that is a very scary thing,” he said.

The report highlights that this prolonged warming trend, fueled by ocean heat and other contributing factors, continues to drive climate instability, posing risks to ecosystems, agriculture, and human communities globally.

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