The Impact of New Mexico’s Declining Public School Enrollment by 2031

For years, RGF has raised alarms about New Mexico’s rapidly aging population and shrinking youth demographic. While the state has long struggled with issues such as high poverty, an underperforming education system, crime, a lack of job opportunities, and an undiversified economy, a new challenge has emerged in recent years. This issue, the so-called “birth dearth,” reflects a significant decline in birth rates, not only in New Mexico but across many industrialized nations. This trend, compounded by the state’s ongoing educational challenges, has already led to a sharp drop in public school enrollment in New Mexico—and the situation is set to worsen.

According to data from the National Center for Education Statistics, New Mexico’s public school enrollment, which once peaked at nearly 340,000 students, has already seen a noticeable decline. Projections indicate that this decline will accelerate in the coming years, especially as fewer children are born. By 2031, the state’s student population is expected to shrink significantly, with the decline in public school enrollment in New Mexico expected to surpass the national average of 5.5%. Only California and Hawaii are projected to see steeper declines, with New Mexico outpacing all of its neighboring states.

Despite initiatives like “free” statewide pre-K programs and “free” college tuition, New Mexico is still experiencing a substantial loss of young people. The state’s future workforce is dwindling, and the implications for its economy and overall vitality are becoming increasingly apparent. Recent reports, such as a podcast from KRQE Channel 13, have also highlighted the concerning trajectory of New Mexico’s population decline, particularly among its youth. The data underscores the critical need for the state to address these demographic trends if it hopes to reverse its current course and build a sustainable future.

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