49ers news: Where Brock Purdy and the Niners hold the edge over the Jets defense

On a recent podcast appearance, former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick said, “We used to have what we call go-to guys.” Those are usually skill players, but he was sitting next to another soon-to-be Hall of Famer, Jason Kelce, who qualifies as a “go-to guy.”

The San Francisco 49ers and New York Jets rosters are littered with go-to guys whose opponents will do everything in their power to take them away and force somebody else to beat them. Will any new go-to players emerge in Week 1? Let’s get into what to expect when the Niners have the ball, as Kyle Shanahan faces a couple of his old buddies in Robert Saleh and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich.

Welcome to the NFL, rook

Football is won at the line of scrimmage, which will remain so until the end of time. In the last game the 49ers played, Christian McCaffrey averaged 3.6 yards per carry despite running into a stacked box (8+ defenders) on 22.7 percent of his carries. Likewise, Brock Purdy was pressured on 41.5 percent of his dropbacks.

The writing has been on the wall at right guard for a few years, and the Niners invested their highest draft pick at the position during the Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch tenure by selecting Dominick Puni in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Puni had a sensational training camp and preseason. You could count how many times he lost a 1-on-1 battle. His reward? The player selected one spot after Nick Bosa in the 2019 NFL Draft and one of the best defensive tackles in the NFL, Quinnen Williams.

Watching the Jets the past couple of days, Williams spent most of the time lined up on the right side of the defense. When he does line up on the left side, it’s generally to attack the right tackle in some kind of twist.

The Jets were fifth in the NFL last season in pressure rate, while the Niners offense was 17th in the same metric. Williams leads the charge, as he had 21 pressures in the Jets’ final four games of the season. He’s a one-man wrecking crew who is equally skilled as a run defender. New York was a top-10 defense at defending the run inside of the tackles as well as in the red zone. Williams shuts down everything inside while the linebackers fly around and stop you from getting to the edge. It’s impressive to watch.

Aaron Banks was a limited participant during Thursday’s practice. He’s been out for roughly a month. Banks and Puni face a steep challenge on Monday night. I’d expect Kyle Shanahan to double-team Williams for the majority of the game. It’s easier said than done, as Ulbrich does a fantastic job of running different games to ensure Quinnen gets a 1-on-1.

Edge rusher Hasaan Reddick has yet to report to the Jets. That means New York will rely on Jermaine Johnson and Will McDonald, and fourth-rounder from the 2022 NFL Draft, Michael Clemons on the edge. A Jets pass rush sans Reddick is as soft of a landing as right tackle Colton McKivitz can ask for.

Next to Williams will be a pair of former 49ers, Javon Kinlaw and Solomon Thomas. Quinnen will get his, as all All-Pro players do during the duration of the game. Minimizing his damage is critical. Make Kinlaw and Thomas beat you.

X marks the spot for Q

Quinnen makes the Jets’ defensive line a scary proposition. We’ll get to New York’s secondary in a bit, as that’s a group you want to be very careful challenging. However, the second-level defenders are an area where the Niners should and will attack on Monday night.

Shanahan is a mastermind of a play-caller, thanks to identifying the mismatch and spamming it over and over. On Thursday night, Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid did that against the Baltimore Ravens. Wide receiver Rashee Rice was lined up on a linebacker and repeatedly won that matchup. I’d expect something similar in Levi’s Stadium on Monday night.

Shanahan has evolved his 21 personnel. It’s still used at a league-high rate, and the 49ers were second in the NFL in yards per carry and rushing success rate in 2023. But how they’ve passed the ball out of this grouping has given opposing defenses headaches. When the 49ers threw the ball with multiple tight ends on the field—Kyle Juszczyk (42 percent of his snaps were as a tight end last year) technically counts as one based on his alignment—they averaged 10.8 yards per play last season. That was the second-highest figure in a season since Shanahan became a head coach.

It’s part of the reason the 49ers have gone out of their way to find a big-bodied tight end to line up next to George Kittle. When they have big people on the field, the defense has to mirror that personnel. Last season, the 49ers faced five-man fronts on a league-high 39 percent of plays. Shanahan wants to dictate the looks he gets. When the defense has more defensive linemen because they’re terrified of Christian McCaffrey, it leaves a linebacker to guard one of the trio of Kittle-Deebo Samuel-Brandon Aiyuk. Good luck.

The 49ers will still run into these heavy boxes. They only passed on 45 percent of five-man fronts—the third-lowest mark in the NFL— but threw for 1,719—yards for an average of 10.7 yards per attempt. For context, no other team surpassed 1,400 yards against five-man fronts.

Purdy’s understanding of where his receivers are and who has the matchup advantage is a big reason why this offense was so effective last season. Opposing defenses want to blitz Purdy—he was blitzed on 32 percent of his dropbacks last year, which was the ninth-most in the NFL—but Brock averaged 1.5 yards per attempt more than the second-placed quarterback against the blitz.

The Jets’ passing defense was stingy last year against short and deep passes and when they didn’t have to blitz. They were second in each of those categories and even second against play-action. This is legitimately a great defense and arguably the best in the league. However, one area they struggled against was defending the intermediate part of the field, and that so happens to be where the 49ers do most of their damage.

Shanahan has shrunk the field every season. They’ve been in the top three in condensed formation rate every year under Shanahan and were the highest in ‘23 at 64 percent. So, now a linebacker is head-up on Aiyuk on one side and Kittle on the other while Deebo goes in motion, likely with a safety following him.

So it’s true that the Jets cornerback tandem has been one of, if not the best, in the NFL, but when you play the game inside of the numbers, you don’t have to worry as much about them being a threat.

Last year, Purdy threw 119 passes targeting in-breaking routes from condensed formations—40 more than any other QB. Purdy threw for 1,483 yards on those throws, averaging 12.5 yards per attempt. Per Next Gen Stats, over half of those passes were targeted to an open receiver—which is calculated as 3+ yards of separation— and the average air yards on those throws were 10.3 yards.

So, when I say Shanahan does the heavy lifting for you pre-snap, it’s not meant to be a jab to Brock. It’s built into the 49ers scheme.

C.J. Moseley is one of the better linebackers in the NFL. C.J. Moseley should not be guarding Deebo Samuel. Based on alignment, there will be a handful of times on Monday night where Moseley is matched up against one of the Niners’ wideouts, but the other linebacker will wear this week’s bullseye.

Quincy Williams, Quinnen’s brother, was awesome in 2023. There’s no sugarcoating it, and by no means am I calling him a bad player. Football is a game predicated on matchups. I’ll bet on Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle winning against somebody wearing No. 56. If Williams or Moseley win those matchups throughout the night, then so be it, but they are downhill players, not ones who should be 1-on-1 in space against All-pro pass-catchers.

As the nearest defender in 2023, Williams allowed an 84.4 passer rating, with 3.8 yards of separation and 5.9 yards after the catch. X marks the spot, and you, Quincy, are the mark on Monday night.

Winning on 3rd & obvious

If the 49ers offense has multiple 3rd & 7+ plays this game, 0-1 is in the cards. That’s not where you want to live against anybody, but it’s especially true against these Jets.

We all know about Sauce Gardner. He quickly became a top 2 cornerback in the NFL from the moment he stepped onto the field. Throw at him at your own risk. Our old friend, D.J. Reed, has had quite a career since he left the Niners. From what I’ve seen, Reed is closer to a top-10-15 cornerback. Those two make life hell on wideouts and make you earn every yard.

In 2023, the third down offense received a makeover—another sign of how Shanahan feels about Purdy. The 49ers aligned in empty formations on a league-high 32 percent of plays when it was at least 3rd & 3 or more. Prior to that, the Niners had never topped 20 percent under Shanahan. This is where McCaffrey’s role will increase in 2024.

Last year, the Niners averaged 9.9 yards per play out of empty in these situations, which was second in the NFL. They converted a first down on half their plays, while Purdy threw beyond the sticks on 64 percent of his throws. It’s funny reading narratives online that Purdy relies on underneath throws so much. That could not be further from the truth. In fact, no other quarterback threw past the sticks in these situations more than Brock. It’s not in his DNA to check the ball down. If anything, the 49ers have had to coach him to take what’s there.

Keep an eye out for how often the 49ers use empty formations against the Jets. They unlocked the offense last year, and with everybody back in the fold, they should be the driving force to success in 2024.

I believe these are the four keys for the 49ers offense on Monday night:

• Spam intermediate routes to Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle
• Make Kinlaw/Solly beat you up the middle
• Take advantage of the Jets linebackers in coverage
• Rely on McCaffrey underneath in the passing game to move the chains