49ers news: Why the past 5 years have prepared the Niners for the 2024 season

My first year covering the San Francisco 49ers was in 2019. Expectations were relatively high for a team coming off a 4-win season. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo returned from a season-ending injury, and many expected him to regain the same form he had in the final quarter of the season in 2017. It would be the first time Kyle Shanahan had somebody competent under center for an entire season.

Offseason investments along the defensive line bolstered a non-existent pass rush from the year prior. Nick Bosa was better than advertised, and Dee Ford was fresh off a career year with the Kansas City Chiefs. Veteran linebacker Kwon Alexander brought a much-needed attitude to the defense, while enemy-turned-friend Richard Sherman came over from the Seattle Seahawks to stabilize the secondary.

The signs were there for a surprise playoff berth, but nobody expected a Super Bowl run. Midway through the season, the front office knew the offense needed a shot in the arm, as rookie wide receiver Deebo Samuel and tight end George Kittle needed another weapon on the perimeter. Thanks to a midseason trade, Emmanuel Sanders provided the spark needed to put the offense over the top.

Or so we thought.

From the first game, it was evident that Garoppolo faced challenges in reading the field. Despite high-scoring games throughout the season, these issues were masked, only to resurface in the playoffs and culminate in a fourth quarter in the Super Bowl that likely still haunts head coach Kyle Shanahan.

Losing your offensive tackles for a month during the regular season didn’t help. The prized edge rusher you acquired via trade during the offseason would only play 226 defensive snaps during the regular season, and that would be the highest total to date.

A smart, effective, stingy defense carried the Niners in 2019. They overcame the Ford injury and rode an undrafted free agent at cornerback opposite Sherman after Ahkello Witherspoon was injured and then was never the same post-injury.

After Kwon injected the necessary fierceness into Warner, Fred blossomed into the best linebacker in the NFL— something we saw early and didn’t feel the need to wait three years to anoint him.

The 49ers made the Super Bowl in 2019 with a stellar defense, a rookie wide receiver, a rental veteran on the other side, a limited quarterback, a stud tight end, and a running game that thrived off big plays despite not having their Pro Bowl-caliber center all season. That team capitalized on a soft schedule and favorable matchups in the playoffs, but in terms of labeling them a “dominant team,” they come up short with the luxury of hindsight.

Difficult decisions were made in the offseason for financial purposes, and one of them involved trading away an ascending interior defensive lineman. The 49ers were in the mindset that they could replace 75 percent of DeForest Buckner’s production at 75 percent of the cost with a first-round pick.

They were woefully wrong, but that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a sound business decision. Looking back, I would have made the Ford and Buckner trades every time. Those were moves that did not work out, so it’s easy to criticize, but you understand the vision and thought process from a team-building standpoint.

The 2020 season was quickly lost after Bosa was injured in the second game. Garoppolo played a half-season’s worth of games, making it a year to forget and time for Shanahan to find himself a dependable player under center.

Welp.

The truth about Trey and the 2021 season

When you trade multiple first-round picks to move up to select a quarterback, you’re telling everybody that you believe he will be the leader of your franchise and a top-10 signal-caller in the league—likely by the end of his rookie contract.

Instead, Trey Lance was playing into the fourth quarter of preseason games in 2024, including throwing the ball to the other team five times.

Based on his output, it’s understandable why Lance is viewed by some as one of the worst draft picks in recent memory if not history. The 49ers drafted a kid with little experience and weren’t comfortable enough starting him out of the gate.

A broken finger sustained in the preseason has been used as a band-aid for Lance’s lack of development, but how do you explain him coming into the red zone in Week 1 and throwing a touchdown pass?

The best-case scenario would have been to take your lumps early on and let Lance develop as he figures out what he can and can’t get away with, as you lean on the strength of your team and likely bow out in the playoffs. Then, the following year, you can unleash Lance after a rough rookie year and be a perennial powerhouse in the NFL.

The truth is Shanahan and the staff hadn’t seen enough in Lance to let him run his offense as a rookie, and Jimmy was too popular in the locker room to bench after all he had accomplished. The combination of the two, plus the risk of the unknown, is how you end up rolling with the veteran under center for another season.

Shanahan wasn’t comfortable getting uncomfortable, and it cost his team and Lance, who would only get better by playing. The reps Trey had this past preseason showed that he was still a deer in the headlights when he was forced to move off his primary read. He was the same player from the 2019 training camp, proving how valuable game reps are for player development.

Raheem Mostert was a godsend for the 49ers for two seasons, but a season-ending injury on the first series in Week 1 ended his stint with the Niners. It’s no surprise that 2021 was the least effective running year of any season the 49ers made the playoffs, as they relied on two rookie running backs before thinking outside the box.

In that same game, linebacker Dre Greenlaw and cornerback Jason Verrett were also lost for the season. Not to mention, the 49ers never saw Richburg return and were without Kittle for the second quarter of the season. Oh, and Buckner’s replacement? He didn’t make it to Halloween.

Three losses in the first five games and beginning the season 3-6 was uncharted waters for a 49ers team led by Shanahan and two coordinators who would go on to be head coaches.

The coaching staff and star players continued to pull a rabbit out of a hat week in and week out. That rabbit Mike McDaniel relied on was Deebo Samuel, who was a one-man magician. Deebo coined the term “wide back” en route to an All-Pro season. Deebo had an explosive play in every game outside of Week 2: 79, 49, 76, 26, 29, 83, 32, 40, 25, 49, 27, 30, 56, 45, 43. Those were Samuel’s longest plays each week.

He was the 49ers offense. Unfortuantely, it wasn’t sustainable, and there were warts throughout the season— think an ugly loss at home to Colt McCoy and the Arizona Cardinals or going on the road and putting up a stinker in Tennessee versus the Titans.

Javon Kinlaw’s injury forced DeMeco Ryans to move Arik Armstead inside, and that would prove to be a career-altering move that would transform the 49ers defense into an elite one.

However, the offensive shortcomings would ultimately cost the Niners in each playoff game. Sure, they “upset” the Cowboys 23-17 at the No. 6 seed. But Garoppolo threw for 172 yards and an interception that game, as the offense only reached the red zone once in 11 drives.

The following week at Lambeau Field — the coldest I’ve ever been in my adult life. It took hours to feel my fingers again— Garoppolo had a painful red zone interception, threw for only 131 yards in the frozen tundra, and the offense sputtered once again, going 0-for-3 in the red zone.

Rookie safety Talanoa Hufanga saved the day by recovering a Jordan Willis blocked punt for a touchdown, one drive after it looked as if the 49ers season was deemed over after failing to convert on 4th & 1.

To prove Shanahan’s confidence level in Jimmy G., he handed the ball to Deebo on 3rd & 7 with just over a minute to play instead of throwing a pass from Green Bay’s 38-yard line. Samuel ran for a first down because, of course, he did. He had come through for this team every week, and that wouldn’t change when they needed him the most. Robbie Gould would eventually nail a 45-yarder to send San Francisco to the NFC Championship.

Blaming Jaquiski Tartt for dropping an interception ignores the 49ers’ failure to take advantage of a first-quarter Matthew Stafford turnover and punting in Rams’ territory. Los Angeles would march 18 plays and 97 yards for a touchdown on their ensuing drive.

Nobody mentions the Rams missing a field goal in the second quarter or how four of the Niners’ five second-half possessions ended with a punt or an interception. Tartt made a mistake, but the 49ers had ample opportunities to upset the Rams.

So, three playoff games, and the offense mustered next to nothing in each game. It was time for a change—a permanent one because there was too much talent on this team to come up short continuously.

Deja Vu in 2022

Week 1 was a disaster as torrential downpours made it impossible for either quarterback to succeed in the windy city. It was supposed to be Lance’s show in 2022, but a freak injury in Week 2 meant we were right back to where we started.

Garoppolo did not put his best foot forward on the road in Denver, which was an ugly loss. He ran out of the end zone against the Broncos for a safety, which was the difference in the game. After trading wins and losses over the next month, Jimmy got hot, and it seemed as if the 49ers were hitting their stride.

In his second year as a coordinator, Ryans had gone from the new kid on the block to the best defensive coordinator in the game. The defense was remarkable, and the pass rush was as creative as ever. Greenlaw was healthy, Warner erased the middle of the field, and the 49ers allowed next to nothing for much of the season.

Garoppolo broke his foot early in December, which meant the 49ers would have to pivot to their third quarterback of the season. Bringing back Garoppolo proved to be wise after Lance was hurt, but now the Niners—amid an epic defensive run—would turn the keys over to a kid who looked like he should be bagging groceries, not conducting the huddle of a championship-ready team.

But something was different. When Brock Purdy entered the game in the first quarter, San Francisco had three points. The 49ers won 33-17. Unsurprisingly but fitting, the defense scored a touchdown to seal the deal.

Miami did what any team would against a third-stringer: Blitz him early and often. In his first game without any preparation, Purdy went 12-for-18 against the blitz. That tells you he had a grasp on the offense and understood where to go with the football. The foreshadowing was on full display by Mr. Irrelevant.

There were multiple times in the Dolphins game and other occasions in the final month of the season where Brock looked like a chicken with his head cut off. He’d run around with reckless abandon, but there was a controlled chaos about him that you couldn’t help but admire.

For years, the 49ers had a quarterback who could only color within the lines. In the NFL, you need somebody to make something happen when the play breaks down. Somebody who hunts the big play but is content letting his playmaker do the work.

Purdy grew more comfortable with each game, as Kittle racked up touchdowns and the 49ers scored 35+ points in four of their final five games. It was bizarre. Is this what Shanahan had envisioned in his hunt for a quarterback this entire time?

In Jimmy’s defense, the midseason addition of Christian McCaffrey undoubtedly gave the 49ers a weapon they’ve never had, but that underscores the areas of the defense Purdy attacked that Garoppolo hadn’t before.

Plus, Jimmy’s mobility was never the same post-ACL surgery. He couldn’t move like he showcased in 2017. Purdy’s scrambling was displayed in his first start, and it hasn’t stopped.

In Week 17, and it’s silly to say looking back, the 49ers couldn’t get off the field against Jarrett Stidham and the vaunted Raiders. But Brock kept answering, and the Niners eventually pulled out a 37-34 win. Those were the Titans and Broncos losses from yesteryear. To me, winning these types of games was a sign that this brand of football was here to stay.

In the Wildcard round against the Seattle Seahawks, Purdy threw for a cool 332 yards and three touchdowns on just 30 attempts. He also ran for a touchdown; three of his other carries went for first downs. The 49ers nearly scored more points against the Seahawks than they had in three playoff games combined the year prior.

The defense dominated the next week, but we’ll never know how the season would have turned out after Purdy tore his UCL in the NFC Championship game. For my money, the defense would have stifled the Eagles, and the offense would have scored four touchdowns on their way to a Super Bowl berth.

That 2022 defense was extraordinary and the precise unit needed to take down the mighty Mahomes. Ryans would move on to greener pastures and take the head coaching position in Houston, meaning the Niners would need to make a defensive change themselves.

Wilted at the hands of Wilks

In an attempt to keep everything the same, Shanahan hired Steve Wilks but didn’t let him bring over any assistants. Wilks would look to deploy the same scheme as DeMeco and Robert Saleh before him, but the 55-year-old never had his finger on the pulse of the roster in the same way his predecessors did.

To this day, I remember asking Shanahan a question about “energy,” Kyle raised his voice and pushed back, saying, “Energy has nothing to do with coaching!”

Of course, that was after Wilks was fired and fresh off a Super Bowl loss. The raw emotions were still fresh. The one-year stint saw Wilks move from the coaching booth to the sidelines, call a blitz at the end of a half, which led to a touchdown, and get diced up over the middle after remaining unreasonably loyal to a nickel cornerback who could not run any more post-ACL surgery.

DeMeco was unique because he put players like Charles Omenihu in positions where they could thrive. He was fearless in mixing personnel up. In 2022, Hufanga had 46 snaps where he lined up along the defensive line. He played nearly 200 snaps at linebacker.

Defense is about getting your best 11 players on the field. Wilks was too static. In 2023, Hufanga saw his usage change drastically in the first ten weeks of the season. Remember him flying around and making plays at the line or in the backfield in 2022? Well, 60 percent of his snaps in 2023 came at free safety. So you took away a big proponent of his game—Hufanga has unreal instincts and a knack for being around the football— because you wanted him to play a traditional safety.

That lack of creativity is how you leave Charvaris Ward —an All-Pro, mind you— on one side of the field watching the Super Bowl like the rest of us as Travis Kelce rips you to shreds. It’s how Deommodore Lenoir ends up playing two snaps in the slot against a team with no interest in throwing outside the numbers in the biggest game of the season. It’s how, instead of rolling with Lenoir and Ji’Ayir Brown inside, you wind up with special-teamer Oren Burks getting worked by arguably the best tight end in the game.

The 2023 offense put up video game numbers and have nothing to show for it because they couldn’t have been more unprepared for an offense—yes, they were led by a Hall of Fame quarterback—that had no business scoring or moving the ball on them as much as they did.

Lesson learned? We’ll find out in September.

A tumultuous offseason is just what the doctor ordered

Knowing where the 49ers have been is imperative to understand how they’ve gotten here. This team has not just knocked on the door of winning the Super Bowl; they’ve been at the table with a spoon in hand.

But it’s always something—whether uncontrollable or not. That carried into the offseason. We went months speculating whether Brandon Aiyuk would remain in the Bay Area. He’s back. Trent Williams was given $48 million reasons upfront to return.

And just when you thought things couldn’t get any hairier, the 49ers first-round pick—who had already missed most of training camp with an injury—was shot in a robbery attempt.

You’ve read all offseason about how you don’t get this many chances to win a Super Bowl, and nobody ever makes it back X amount of times, etc. But those ignore this team and the situation surrounding them.

Make no mistake, this is a do-or-die season in many ways for the 49ers. It’ll not be easy to retain the cast of stars for another season as Purdy is set to break the bank. The Niners face challenges and must overcome aspects they’ve yet to encounter. But they are equipped to do so—more so than ever before.

Aiyuk nixed any trades, sending him out of town because he knew this was the best situation for him and the best opportunity he’d have to win. Trent told us he returned sooner to ensure the team would become closer after Pearsall’s unfortunate incident, and he could bestow his knowledge onto the team.

Ironically enough, everything that took place this offseason will be why the 49ers get over the hump this year. The bonds and brotherhood will be stronger than ever, and they will learn how to play for each other in ways they never have. They will also understand the importance of trust in a team sport—that goes for the coaching staff. You can’t quantify character, which the 49ers have to a man up and down the roster.

Why 2024 is the year the 49ers get the job done

I’m not naive enough to think the 49ers stroll through the regular season without getting a street fight from everybody on the schedule. Robert Saleh’s bunch winning on Monday night shouldn’t surprise anybody.

Replacing Dre Greenlaw is impossible. He’s the perfect linebacker to play sidekick to Fred Warner. Hufanga is being eased back into the mix, so expecting him to return to his All-Pro self is unrealistic. New defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen needs time to gel and figure out the best combinations at every level.

There’s a significant chance that the Niners’ defense is a bend-a-lot-more-than-you-want-but-don’t-break unit that relies on timely turnovers and sacks. Sorensen doesn’t have to reinvent the wheel. He doesn’t have to be 2022 DeMeco for the 49ers to compete. A more modern approach in the secondary should be enough, from roles to usage and coverage, while leaning heavily on Bosa and Javon Hargrave.

But the other side of the ball be the driving force as to why the 49ers hoist the Lombardi trophy in 2024. In 2023, we saw an offense that was superb across the board. They were electric on all fronts. Here are ten offensive categories that I believe help paint the picture to show you how out of this world the offense was last year:

The categories:

EPA per pass
Passing success rate
On target percentage
Intended air yards per attempt
Quarterback Rating
EPA per rush
Rushing SuccessRate
Rushing Yards Over Expected per Attempt
Yards Before Contact per attempt
Number of rushes over 10 yards in a season

The 2022 numbers could be clearer, as Jimmy was the quarterback from Weeks 2-13 and Brock the final month-ish. Garoppolo had the higher dropback success rate by 1.2 percent, but the team’s rushing EPA —which could be viewed as bigger plays as opposed to a down-to-down success rate— was nearly five times higher, albeit a smaller sample size. That tells me teams were forced to defend more of the field and not load/stack the box with Purdy under center. The 49ers’ success rate on the ground was also up 2.3 percent, with Purdy in 2022.

As you can see, from top to bottom, we are talking about a juggernaut offense in 2023. The league average success rate is around 45 percent, and the Niners blew past that number through the air last year. Brock’s QBR was the highest of any year despite pushing the ball down the field, in a couple of cases, by more than a yard per attempt.

McCaffrey’s explosiveness on the ground is noticeable, but he was also consistent down in and down out. For as much criticism as there is for the offensive line, last year was the best they’ve been statistically.

Will the 49ers pick up where they left off, continue to roll out of bed, and score 30 points per game? It feels like the easy answer is no, but what data do we have to believe otherwise? Everybody from this side of the ball returns except for the backup tight ends.

Colton McKivitz is in Year 2 as a starter, but right guard Dominick Puni might be the upgrade too many pundits on the outside are ignoring. One of the most significant issues in the Super Bowl was interior pressure and miscommunication. There will surely be growing pains early, but Puni’s presence and poise from the preseason suggest the 49ers plugged a massive hole. They should be able to concentrate more resources to help McKivitz if needed.

Purdy put up MVP-type numbers last year without having an offseason. Indeed, he didn’t work with Aiyuk all summer, but it’s not as if you’re throwing into tight windows in Shanahan’s offense.

Last year, Purdy threw into tight windows the seventh-fewest among all quarterbacks. Shanahan does the heavy lifting for you before the ball is snapped. He always has. It was a matter of him finding a quarterback who could not only execute but find the wide receiver running open at 15 yards, not five. That’s who Purdy is. Brock led the NFL in EPA per dropback in 2023. He goes out of his way to look for the explosive play.

And that’s why you pay Aiyuk—the wide receiver who finished second in EPA per taget last year—Kittle was fifth. This contract gives the 49ers an excuse to run their offense through Aiyuk more than ever. After last year, why wouldn’t you? Aiyuk finished third in the NFL among all pass catchers in receiving yards per route.

Look at the difference when he was on the field compared to off in 2023:

Last year was about finding an identity in the passing game. The Niners have that identity and still have ample options to fall back on. But make no mistake, Aiyuk is one of the few players in the NFL worth a full point. Now that he’s one of the highest-paid receivers in the NFL, his usage should only increase.

Three to five more targets a game might seem like a lot, but you’re pulling one or two away from Deebo, one from Kyle Juszczyk, and upping your run/pass split from 49/51 percent in 2023 by a percentage point or two. No drastic changes need to be made to ensure your most dangerous threat gets the ball more in 2024. But it’s a change that is necessary if this offense is to continue to ascend.

The identity on the ground won’t change. Last year, McCaffrey ran into a stacked box on 36 percent of his carries, which led the NFL. Yet, he still was sixth in success rate at 47 percent. It’s picking your poison, and you’re damned if you do or damned if you don’t.

San Francisco led the NFL in EPA, rushing yards over expected, and carries that went 10+ yards when rushing outside the tackles. They were also second in success rate. Breaking: Having a Hall of Fame left tackle does wonders for your running game.

We may see more of third-year pro Jordan Mason in the backfield to preserve McCaffrey’s health. It goes without saying that this all comes with a giant health asterisk. However, unlike in years past, the 49ers have depth at skill positions to withstand an injury from McCaffrey for a few games or a Deebo Samuel.

It may take time for Sorensen to get his feet underneath him, but I see a desperate version of the offense this year. With these weapons and the play-caller, imagining other teams keeping pace with the Niners for four quarters isn’t easy.

Looking at the roster from top to bottom, knowing what wins in the NFL and where the 49ers’ strengths are, this team enters the season ready to win a Super Bowl. You could not say that before during the Shanahan tenure without poking holes somewhere in the roster. If you did, you had legitimate reasons. That’s no longer the case.