49ers versus Patriots Week 4 predictions: Expect another Jauan Jennings breakout

The San Francisco 49ers (1-2) return to the friend confines of Levi’s Stadium after losing consecutive games on the road. The New England Patriots (1-2) are also looking for their first win since Week 1 as they head to Santa Clara on the back end of a two-game cross-country road trip.

Both teams are looking to bounce back from Week 3 divisional road losses, with the 49ers collapsing against the Rams and New England never looking close against the Jets. However, maybe the good news for the Patriots is that their Week 3 loss came on Thursday night, so they’ll enter Sunday with the rest of the team’s advantage over San Francisco.

Sunday will be the first time the 49ers have faced the Patriots without Bill Belichick since Week 16 of the 1998 season, where New England won 24-21. New England’s head coach in 1998? A future thorn in the side: Pete Carroll. Jerod Mayo will be on the sideline Sunday in Belichick’s place after facing the 49ers twice in his career with New England.

After going 2-3 against Belichick, San Francisco seeks to win consecutive games against New England for the first time since winning six in a row from 1980 to 1995.

49ers versus Patriots odds, money line, over/under

Despite the two teams sharing the same record, FanDuel doesn’t think Sunday will be close:

• Spread: 49ers (-10.5)
• Moneyline: 49ers (-590); Patriots (+430)
• Over/under: 40.5

Predictions

Marc Delucchi: 49ers 31, Patriots 24

The 49ers can send us into a real frenzy if they lose this game, but I believe last weekend’s loss will prompt some necessary reflection. For whatever reason, it seems like every season, the Niners have one stretch where they lay a couple of eggs against weaker competition. Despite their struggles, Brock Purdy has been good, and Brandon Aiyuk seems on the verge of a breakout game. I think the defense will still leave something to be desired, but I trust the offense to put enough of an all-around performance together to get the victory.

Andrew Pasquini: 49ers 27, Patriots 13

I don’t particularly appreciate that I don’t feel great about this game. The 49ers come limping in— literally and figuratively— against a New England team that might not be the best but have been pesky in two of the season’s first three games. I would like to believe the 49ers’ pass rush returns to its usual dominant form against a struggling New England offensive line, but after it failed to do so last week against an injured Rams line, it doesn’t inspire much hope. I am taking the 49ers because they are just too talented for the Patriots. Oh god, please be too talented for the Patriots.

Kyle Posey: 49ers 24, Patriots 12

This game has the makings of a blowout, but the Patriots play slow enough and chew up just enough time on their possessions that the game might appear closer than it really is.

We went through what to expect when the 49ers are on defense. If there was ever a “get-right” opportunity for that side of the ball, it’s in Week 4. New England does not present the same challenges that have cost the Niners.

Surprisingly, New England’s defense has been a bit of a sieve in the season’s early going. They have the seventh-worst unit from an EPA-per-play standpoint. The Patriots have the fifth-lowest pressure rate defensively,

They’ve had cornerback Christian Gonzalez travel with the opposing team’s WR1 and give up yards — in bunches — at every other portion of the field. Brandon Aiyuk doesn’t have the production of a WR1 this season, but one would think that’s who Gonzalez travels with. If that’s the case, the Purdy to Jauan Jennings connection should again be in for a big game.

San Francisco is in the middle of the pack in terms of red zone scoring. That number has gone up in recent weeks. New England isn’t much better, as they’re 16th in the same category. In the scoring zone is another area where the Niners miss Christian McCaffrey. I have them settling for a field goal on one of their red zone drives, which is how you get to 24. I think the Patriots stall in the red zone on each of their drives.

Jason Aponte: 49ers 31, Patriots 13

Week 4 is hardly the time to call any game a “must-win,” but here we are. Historically, teams that begin the season 1-3 haven’t made a playoff appearance. If any team is equipped to break that trend, it’s the 49ers with reinforcements on the way, but the Niners need this one in the worst way. George Kittle appears set to return after a one-game absence with optimism that Deebo Samuel could also give it a go. Either way, adding Kittle back will be enough for the 49ers to win against Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots.

One matchup to watch will be Christian Gonzalez against Brandon Aiyuk. Kittle returning won’t allow the Patriots’ defense to roll coverages to Aiyuk as much, and Jauan Jennings is firmly on everyone’s radar. Brock Purdy continues to play well, and the 49ers roll in this one.

Rohan Chakravarthi: 49ers 24, Patriots 10

The 49ers haven’t looked good in recent weeks. That’s obvious.

But this matchup sets up to be a good bounce-back game for San Francisco on both sides of the ball.

Defensively, the Patriots are one of the worst pass-protecting teams in the NFL, and quarterback Jacoby Brissett struggles under pressure, so this could be a big game for Nick Bosa and Maliek Collins. It’ll be important to stop the run, but that’ll be priority No. 1 for the 49ers on Sunday.

Offensively, New England is solid as a run defense but struggles with their pass defense, allowing nearly 250 yards a game. That should allow for Brock Purdy to get into a groove, although I don’t see the 49ers scoring 30 points in this one in what could be more of a low-scoring game.