49ers news: 60 percent of the Niners production from 2023 will be out

The average commercial to advertise a 49ers/Rams game would include highlights of players like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua.

Unfortunately, instead of a list of players in a highlight reel, it’s an injury list for the first of two 2024 meetings between the two division rivals. Potentially six Week 1 starters combined – seven if Christian McCaffrey is included – will miss Sunday’s Week 3 clash. The 49ers will be without Samuel and McCaffrey, with George Kittle missing practice on Thursday, and Los Angeles missing Nacua, Kupp, Jonah Jackson, and Steve Aliva from its offense.

But just how much are both sides missing? Let’s start there with this week’s numbers to know.

58.6

With Nacua, Kupp, and Tyler Higbee out, the Rams will be without 58.6 percent of its pass targets from 2023.

Matthew Stafford could be without his three favorite targets for the next few weeks. Higbee started the season on the physically unable to perform list, recovering from a knee injury from last season. However, with the losses of Nacua and Kupp, Stafford will be without the trio, which combined for 63.2 percent of the team’s passing yards last season.

Instead, Stafford will rely on Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson, and Colby Parkinson. That trio has combined for 28 targets through the first two games of the season, just one behind Kupp’s team-high 27. Only Johnson has history against the 49ers with the Rams, with two receptions for eight yards in the Rams Week 18 win last season. Parkinson had three receptions for 37 yards and a touchdown in two games against San Francisco in 2023 with Seattle.

The Rams haven’t had many issues moving the ball in the air – ranked fifth in passing yards – but Stafford only has thrown for one touchdown in two games. The task won’t be much easier without his three most reliable targets against the 49ers defense.

52.2

With McCaffrey and Samuel out, the 49ers will be without 52.2 percent of its touches from 2023.

That number jumps to 60.1 if Kittle is out as well – whose status for Sunday is in jeopardy after missing practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury – and jumps to an even more alarming 70 percent if Elijah Mitchell is included.

Jordan Mason has stepped up in the absence of McCaffrey and Mitchell and should match up well against the Rams run defense, but that’s a lot of missing touches in the pass game. With the versatility of McCaffrey and Samuel, the 49ers are essentially missing two runners and three pass-catchers. However, unlike Stafford, Brock Purdy still has an all-pro to lean on.

Brandon Aiyuk’s most significant impact over the past two weeks was a dropped touchdown, and Shanahan and John Lynch are still looking for his first big game since signing the long-awaited extension. Sunday against the Rams could be the performance the 49ers have been looking for, with Aiyuk as the most prominent target remaining for Purdy.

Aiyuk, with the help of Jauan Jennings, will have to shoulder most of the pass offense against a Rams secondary that could still be reeling after a poor Week 2 outing.

59.1

The 49ers defense has allowed a first down on 59.1 percent of third downs this season, second-most in the league.

The Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers sandwich the 49ers, two defenses you don’t want to be around when it comes to any stat. Despite the third-down struggles, the Rams offense hasn’t handled third downs well either, converting on 30.4 percent of its third downs, eighth-worst in the league.

Interestingly enough, third-and-longs have been giving the San Francisco defense fits. Of the 13 conversions the 49ers defense have allowed on third down, eight have been on third-and-7-or-longer. Sam Darnold took advantage of one last week, connecting with Jalen Nailor for 36 yards on a third-and-8 with Minnesota up seven at the halfway point, kicking a field goal at the end of the drive to put the game away. Two weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers took advantage of his third-and-8, hitting Allen Lazard for a 36-yard touchdown.

The Los Angeles offense hasn’t been too successful on third-and-longs—or any third downs, for that matter—converting only two-of-11 third downs that needed seven or more yards. With the Rams missing as much as they are on offense, forcing quick drives and stopping third downs will be essential for the 49ers’ defense.

26

The Los Angeles defense has allowed 26 first downs on the ground, the most in the NFL.

The Rams’ defense has also allowed the second-most total first downs, 45, but it has had some real struggles against the run through two weeks. Los Angeles has allowed the third-most rushing yards this season—394—while also allowing the third-highest yards per attempt, 5.5.

The 49ers offense will counter with Mason, who has already seen a career-high 48 rush attempts this season. He’s done the most with the opportunity he’s gotten due to the McCaffrey injury, and his 247 rushing yards are only behind JK Dobbins through two weeks. After 28 rushing attempts in Week 1, Mason had 20 carries in the loss to the Vikings but maintained his 5.0 yards per attempt clip for a second-consecutive 100-yard game.

The Los Angeles defense struggled with James Conner last week, allowing the veteran running back to run for 122 yards on 22 attempts and a touchdown. Shanahan will likely look to run early and often and use Mason to try to take advantage of a poor Rams run defense and keep the chains moving.