49ers news: Should Jauan Jennings be the WR2 over Deebo Samuel?

Stats and numbers, in general, are meaningless without context. Suppose you knew nothing about the San Francisco 49ers. In that case, you’d come away thinking that Deebo Samuel was their number one receiver based on the sheer number of targets he received and how they were considerably higher than George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk’s on Monday night.

Samuel saw nine targets, compared to five by Aiyuk, Kittle, and Jauan Jennings. Kyle Juszczyk was next in line with three.

Christian McCaffrey’s absence meant that somebody needed to fill his multiple roles without sacrificing their own usage. Samuel shares traits similar to McCaffrey’s, which makes him the perfect “replacement.”

Deebo saw one target beyond 20 yards. It was designed to get him 1-on-1 deep, but the Jets had sniffed the play out, and Samuel was double-covered. After that deep target, which came on the initial third down of the game, Shanahan targeted Deebo twice out of the backfield on three quick slants, two screens, and a 5-yard out route that he turned into 25 yards in a way that only Deebo can.

Despite Samuel’s volume, his usage doesn’t suggest he’s WR2. To me, that honor goes to Jauan Jennings. It’s a copycat league, and the NFL saw the Niners receivers struggle to get open against man coverage in the Super Bowl. The one wideout who made the most of his opportunities was Jennings.

I believe the coaching staff took a long look at their personnel this offseason and – based on how they were used in Week 1 – came into the year thinking Jennings would leapfrog Samuel as the WR2 on the team.

Jennings suffered an ankle injury against the Jets and is day-to-day, so the Niners might have to pivot from what they had initially hoped due to multiple injuries before we get to Week 2.

Instead of looking at targets, let’s add the number of routes to calculate the actual target percentage from Monday night. When you do that, here’s the target percentage:

Deebo: 36%
Jennings: 27.8%
Aiyuk: 20%
Juszczyk: 20%
Kittle: 17.2%

Again, context is critical here. This comes with a giant caveat that Aiyuk had more targets than he did practices before Week 1. Kittle only stayed in to block on three of the 35 passing plays he was on the field for, but that is three fewer opportunities to get the ball in his hands. Meanwhile, Samuel had a more significant workload as he worked in the area of the field where McCaffrey does.

All that did was open the door for Jennings to feast in an area where he always does but give Brock Purdy a big-bodied target over the middle of the field. Jennings’ first target was a classic hi-low Shanahan concept. Aiyuk ran off the coverage; Deebo and Samuel were underneath, parting the red sea that was the Jets defense 20 yards down the field.

Jennings caught all three of his targets, which were over ten yards, for a total of 51 yards. He forced two missed tackles, while four of his five receptions went for first downs.

Jennings’s second target screams WR2. Samuel isn’t on the field. It’s 1st & 10, and the 49ers have a fullback on the field, but Juszczyk lined up as a tight end. George Kittle motions across the formation, leaving Jennings 1-on-1 against D.J. Reed.

Remember the target to Samuel out of the backfield where Purdy missed about three inches, which was the difference in the incompletion? Now look at the play above and notice the margin for error Purdy has with a 6’3 target like Jennings.

Jauan sells as if he’s going to the outside, then sharply cuts back inside, giving Purdy plenty of surface area to complete the pass. If you notice, Jennings gets to his landmark and wins before Aiyuk on the other side. The Niners have, which is why Jennings received as many targets as he did against a top-tier secondary.

Jennings was open on each of his targets, and you could argue that the only reason his last reception — and 8-yarder on 3rd & 9— didn’t end up as a first down was because he came back to the ball too much.

When you look at the average yards of separation, those numbers can be skewed. For example, Geoge Kittle’s was the highest, thanks to a play-action fake and him running untouched against a zone defense. That doesn’t mean Kittle can’t get open. We know he can. Perhaps Kyle Juszczyk is a better example. His average yards of separation was 3.8 yards, thanks to a design to get Juice running free down the seam.

Those examples further hammer home the point of Jennings – if healthy – as the WR2 of the 49ers. We walked through his targets but committed a 3rd & 2 conversion for a first down. On the night, Jennings averaged 3.2 yards of separation. Samuel was at 1.8, while Aiyuk was at 1.6.

It’s a one-game sample size, but Jennings was the only 49ers player targeted to have a positive catch rate over expected — a metric Jennings was fifth among all players with at least five targets in Week 1. That stat and his separation number tell us that Jennings is going above and beyond expectation and doing so when the defense is playing him in tight quarters.

The passing game all worked without an extreme makeover to any other skill players on the roster. Aiyuk is still getting his feet underneath him, while Kittle and Deebo remain focal points of the offense. But it seems there is a minor shift, which involves getting the ball to Jennings when the 49ers want to make a concerted effort to make something happen over the intermediate portion of the field.

What do you think? Is this a classic Week 1 overreaction, or was this Purdy running the offense, and it just so happened that the target share shook out in Jennings’ favor?